In April 2025, FAO brought together global experts to share their knowledge of food safety foresight approaches and build a network supporting future activities. The September publication outlines food safety foresight approaches conducted by a range of experts from governments, international organizations, research institutes and universities, and the private sector. It captures best practices and outlines key guiding principles for foresight applied to food safety, especially considering advances in digital tools like AI.

Above all, the publication emphasizes the importance of human expertise to leveraging emerging digital tools, as well as fostering strong knowledge partnerships among stakeholders. Therefore, the publication aims to strengthen global collaboration to enhance food safety foresight capabilities among stakeholders.

The December webinar was opened by Vittorio Fattori, Ph.D., an author of the report and a Food Safety Officer in the Food Systems and Food Safety Division at FAO. He highlighted the importance of foresight in anticipating emerging food safety risks and opportunities, especially in light of important drivers of change like climate change, global trade, urbanization, new food sources and production systems, new technologies, and geopolitical instability. He also reinforced the need to strategically integrate digital tools and human expertise in a comprehensive food safety foresight approach.

Dr. Fattori has contributed to Food Safety Magazine articles on food safety foresight and emerging food safety issues (which can be read here and here), and has also spoken on the Food Safety Matters podcast about the topic (listen here).

The Benefits of Cross-Sector Collaboration in Foresight Activities

Panelist Nicola King, M.Sc. of the Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science reflected on four positive outcomes when foresight activities become a collaboration among the public, private, and research sectors:

1. When diverse perspectives are shared, viewpoints can be shifted, resulting in more informed and robust decision-making
2. Open discussions about uncertainties in a changing world help participants become more comfortable with ambiguity, clarify what is not yet known, and foster a culture where it is acceptable to acknowledge limitations; additionally, transparency about intentions and interests builds trust and helps clarify the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders
3. Joint learning allows organizations to pool their knowledge and expertise, which reduces the likelihood of future surprises and enables proactive identification and management of emerging issues before they escalate
4. The food safety foresight process reinforces the idea that food safety is a collective responsibility, best achieved through mutual support, open communication, and the recognition that incidents affecting one actor can have far-reaching consequences across entire sectors or markets.

Key Trends and Drivers with Potential Food Safety Implications

Frans Verstraete of the EU Directorate-General for Health and Food Safety (DG-SANTE) discussed the timely identification of trends and drivers—both within and outside the agri-food sector. Key areas of interest include the circular biobased economy, climate change, sustainable agriculture, innovations in food packaging, and plant-based diets, all of which present both risks and opportunities for food safety. Empowering consumers with accurate information and maintaining vigilance for new types of risks—such as plant toxins and microbiological contamination in unexpected food matrices—were also highlighted as priorities.

Foresight and Food Safety in the Humanitarian Context

Francesco Mascherpa of the World Food Program (WFP) examined foresight in the humanitarian context, which presents a unique set of challenges based on the complexity of emergency-driven supply chains and the often-limited resources available for food safety management. Additionally, data gaps are particularly pronounced for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and for specialized nutritious foods. To address these challenges, increase the effectiveness of food safety and quality management systems, and strengthen food safety preparedness, WFP employs a tiered approach:

1. Root cause analysis (past): Analyzing past food safety incidents to improve internal processes, develop strategies, and prevent future occurrences
2. Early warnings (near future): Collecting and assessing internal food safety and quality data for early warnings and trends, with laboratory testing at suppliers’ premises and downstream throughout the food supply chain
3. Foresight (medium-term future): Monitoring regulatory developments that could impact WFP operations and engaging in standard-setting platforms to ensure the humanitarian context is considered, and future challenges are minimized; special food safety measures are also defined for emergency situations, allowing for rapid risk mitigation and preparedness.

A Regulatory Approach to Managing Emerging Food Safety Issues

Heather Holland of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) covered a comprehensive approach to managing emerging food safety issues, which involves a combination of early identification, thorough analysis, and forward-looking strategies, at three levels:

1. Identifying new and unexpected hazards through surveillance and monitoring (e.g., a notable Escherichia coli outbreak linked to flour)
2. Understanding the underlying factors contributing to incidents through root cause analysis, enabling the development of targeted interventions to prevent recurrence; new analytical approaches and methodologies increase capability to identify causes of illness for new food–hazard combinations
3. Anticipating new risks through foresight, including strong interagency collaboration and information-sharing, and considering non-traditional risks (e.g., those associated with low-moisture foods) and leveraging advanced science and technologies [e.g., whole genome sequencing (WGS) and targeted sampling programs].

Case Study: Food Safety Foresight in the Private Sector

Representing the private sector, Aaron O’Sullivan of Danone presented a case study of how the company uses foresight, central to which is the implementation of structured risk anticipation processes. These processes include three main steps:

1. Scanning (risk anticipation)
2. Planning/doing (risk management)
3. Checking/acting (risk control).

These processes integrate horizon scanning to identify potential hazards, assess their relevance to the business, and develop and implement appropriate mitigation measures. This involves: 1) identifying the sources of relevant information and 2) leveraging the latest digital tools, like AI, to gather and sort the information. However, expert human oversight remains paramount for interpreting data and decision-making. Mr. Sullivan emphasized that for those just starting on their foresight journey, advanced digital tools are not required, but they can be useful.