A recent study evaluating the outcomes of temporary increases in official controls (OCs) applied to food imports at EU border control posts, which are set forth in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/1793, suggest that these increased checks may have limited effectiveness and efficiency at preventing non-compliant foodstuffs from entering the EU market.

Regulation (EU) 2019/1793 lists the food and feed of non-animal origin from certain countries that are subject to a temporary increase of official controls at their entry into the EU, based on a heightened level of food safety risk or historic non-compliance.

Using probability theory and Bayes’ theorem methods, researchers assessed the prevalence of non-compliant imports placed on the market despite heightened controls. The findings indicate that while increased OCs—sometimes applied to up to 50 percent of incoming consignments—do reduce the rate of non-compliance, the reduction is consistently lower than the rate of control increase. This suggests limited effectiveness, particularly when the initial prevalence of non-compliance is low.

Efficiency, defined as the ratio of non-compliant consignments detected to the number of analyses performed, was found to be independent of the number of controls. Instead, it is directly tied to the sensitivity of the testing methods and the initial prevalence of non-compliance. Notably, efficiency can only match the initial prevalence when test sensitivity reaches 100 percent.

The study also examined alternative provisions involving intensified controls, which are additional checks triggered by each non-compliant result. Scenarios applying amplification factors (i.e., the number of additional OCs after each non-compliant result) of three and five demonstrated improved effectiveness, especially when sensitivity was high or specificity was low. However, low specificity may lead to excessive sampling, potentially encompassing all consignments.

The study underscores that the level of consumer protection afforded by the current measures may not be proportionate to the resources invested. To enhance both effectiveness and efficiency, the authors recommend:

• Implementing sampling procedures and analytical methods with high sensitivity and specificity
• Leveraging reliable data to identify consignments with higher non-compliance risk
• Applying targeted controls based on seasonal trends or known hazards.

The findings support a more strategic, data-informed approach to border inspections, aligning with the broader goals of Regulation (EU) 2017/625 to ensure food safety while optimizing resource use.

The study was published in the Italian Journal of Food Safety.