The wake of the StarLink episode of last October has seen a confused and contentious landscape emerge regarding genetically modified (GM) foods, one characterized by a knot of discussions, regulatory initiatives, hastily devised monitoring programs and conflicting information. Confronted by this cacophony, consumer opinion waffles.
Despite this, bioengineered products designed to promote human health continue to show up on the radar. The most visible of these is Golden Rice, which carries three genes from the daffodil flower that produce beta-carotene, and is viewed by some as a panacea for combating vitamin deficiency in Third World countries. Raw potatoes have been modified to carry a vaccine against a strain of diarrhea-causing E. coli and, more recently, scientists in the U.K. and The Netherlands have used gene technology to increase levels of flavonols, a class of powerful antioxidants, in tomato peel. The researchers believe the fruit could help ward off heart disease and cancer.
It is these sorts of developments that, during the next three to four years, will drive the planting and consumer acceptance of genetically engineered crops, and bring significant change to the testing strategies and technologies employed throughout the food production community, according to a recently released market report.
Published by Strategic Consulting Inc., a market research firm in Woodstock, VT, the report, titled The World Market for GM-Food Testing concludes that during the years 2000-2005, improved technologies will deliver corn, soy and other hybrids with specific traits desired by food and other industrial customers, creating advanced agricultural products that are superior in quality and performance.[1]
“The impact on GM testing will be dramatic,” says Tom Weschler, president of Strategic Consulting. “End customers will need to ensure that they are getting what they paid for.”
Plantings to Increase in More Diverse Regions
The report is based on surveys and in-depth interviews with representatives from agricultural companies, farms, grain elevators, food processing companies, regulatory agencies, testing laboratories and industry associations. Along with testing of GM foods, the report analyzes trends in plantings of transgenic crops, of which more than 40 varieties have been cleared through the U.S. federal review process. Roughly 43 million hectares of GM crops were planted worldwide in 2000 and the report predicts this will increase to 85 million hectares in 2005 (Figure 1). Soybeans, corn, cotton and canola are the dominant GM crops, and the report says that in 2000, GM varieties accounted for 34% of the 72 million hectares of soy planted globally, 16% of the 34 million hectares of cotton, 11% of the 25 million hectares of canola and 7% of the 140 million hectares of maize.
Crop plantings are concentrated geographically in three primary areas—U.S., Argentina and Canada— which account currently for 98% of the total area of GM plantings. The report predicts significant opportunity for growth, specifically in developing countries such as Brazil, India and China. It notes that about one quarter of the global transgenic crop area from 1997-2000 was in developing countries, which experienced strong growth in GM plantings compared with that in industrialized countries, where a slower adoption rate was experienced during the period 1999-2000 due to the fact that “farmers in industrial countries are becoming more concerned as consumers in some geographies become more skeptical,” the report says.
However, this skepticism is predicted to abate and pave the way for a greater volume and variety of crops. GM crops, particularly those planted in 2004 and 2005, increasingly will encompass what the report calls Generation 2 and Generation 3 output traits, which will be critical in mitigating consumer backlash against agricultural biotechnology.
Consumer Opinion Malleable
Opinion surveys about GM foods abound and offer varying conclusions, giving the overall sense that consumer opinion in the U.S. is in a state of flux. This was underscored by the recent published Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology. The core finding of the survey, according to executive director Mike Rodemeyers, is that “public opinion is ‘up for grabs’ because this new technology has moved faster than the public’s ability to fully understand it and its implications.”
Conducted in January via telephone poll of 1,001 Americans, the Pew survey found that 46% of respondents did not know what to think about the safety of GM foods, and that those with an opinion were evenly split, with 29% believing GM foods are safe and 25% indicating they are not. Safety is just one component of what the Strategic Consulting report identifies as the perceived risk problem (Figure 2). With Generation 1 input traits, the perception is that consumers absorb the perceived risk of GM foods while the food producers accrue all the benefits.
“Today’s GM products, such as StarLink corn, are termed Generation 1,” Weschler explains. “They yield positive input traits which primarily benefit food producers in extending or delaying ripening times, increasing resistance to pesticides and herbicides or providing disease resistance. The bottom line is that the consumer feels that all of the advantage is for the grower while the consumer bears all of the perceived risk for Generation 1 GM products.”
Generation 2 traits also benefit food producers in reducing processing, energy, storage or transportation costs. Examples here include low-fat potatoes, longer shelf-life tomatoes and soy products with high oleic acid expression that mimic the taste and health benefits of olive oil.
Conversely, Generation 3 products yield output traits that directly benefit the consumer, such as edible vaccines, anti-cancer vegetables, cholesterol-reducing grains and crops fortified with micronutrients. It is the continued development of foods yielding these benefits, along with improved education, will prompt better consumer trust of genetic modification. These products will appear with increased frequency in 2004 and 2005.
Testing to Assure Presence and Absence
The emergence of Generation 3 products also will bring about a change in GM testing strategies. Currently, most testing, while mandated by food processors and retailers, is pushed back to their ingredient suppliers and to grain elevators. The third-generation, value-added products “will shift the test burden to food processors, who will become more vertically integrated and institute identity preserved systems for added assurance that their products contain the positive genetic traits,” Weschler says. In other words, there will be a gradual shift from testing to assure the absence of genetically modified material to testing to assure the added value is present.
Weschler and others believe this will precipitate a steady increase in the volume of tests conducted. The Strategic Consulting report predicts that the number of tests conducted for GM food will rise roughly ten-fold from 2000 to 2005. Testing technologies used in the US currently are divided evenly among polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (35%), lateral flow immunoassay (35%) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (30%), according to the report.
“There will be sustained testing the next few years specifically for StarLink, as well as to meet non-GM contract needs,” Weschler says. “Testing needs will change through 2005 with the emergence of Generation 2 and 3 products, shifting from primarily meeting non-GM contract requirements to ensuring that desirable traits are present in the product.”
Bruce Flickinger is a freelance writer and editor specializing in the food and pharmaceutical industries.
Reference
1. Weschler, T. The World Market for GM-Food Testing. Strategic Consulting Inc., 2014 Grassy Lane, Woodstock, VT 05091. www.strategic-consult.com.